How To Pick a Melbourne Cup Winner

May 8, 2019

It’s definitely not easy picking the Melbourne Cup race, winner. After all, to be eligible to enter the race, to begin with, you have to be a champion racehorse in form, so competition is close and it’s fierce.

Whether you’re a serious and regular punter or someone who only places a wager on Melbourne Cup race day, everyone enjoys the sensation of victory, and it’s not all about the winning payout either.

So how do you increase your chances of picking a Melbourne Cup winner? Visit a psychic?

While there are no absolute guarantees, there are some things you can do to give yourself a better chance of correctly picking the winning horse. Let’s look at a few ideas.

Don’t Back the Race Favourite

That may sound counter-intuitive, but race favourites seldom win the Melbourne Cup. Throughout its entire history, Melbourne Cup favourites have only gone on to taste sweet victory about 23% of the time. That’s less than a quarter, so not great odds in your favour there.

You might get lucky if you go the favourite route, but you’re starting with a history and the odds against you.

Okay, so if we’re not going to back the favourite, what else can help us?

Follow the Lead Up Races

Whether Australian horses or international runners, many horses that contest the Melbourne Cup will also contest some major races in the weeks and months leading up to the race that stops the nation.

Both the Caulfield Cup and the Geelong Cup are 2 key races to keep a keen eye on. Both are run several weeks out from the Melbourne Cup and are often great form guides for horses leading up to the big one.

Also take note of the Cox Plate, which is run about 10 days prior to the big Tuesday in November.

Any Melbourne Cup 2019 horses that have the best chance of winning will usually perform well in one or several of the 3 races mentioned above.

The form is everything going into a major event, and the Melbourne Cup is no exception in this regard.

Choose a Jockey On a Winning Streak

Often the right jockey can make all the difference on race day. Over the long history of the Melbourne Cup, there have been quite a few unfancied long shots win the race, and often that statistic can be credited to the jockey riding the horse currently experiencing a winning streak and a purple patch of form.

There are never any absolute guarantees of course, but a Cup rider who has been winning races leading up to the great race might just continue that winning form on the first Tuesday come November.

Take a Chance (and a Punt) On An Overseas Horse

Every year, more and more international horses are entering the Melbourne Cup fray, and more and more international entrants are going on to win.

The important thing to consider is that it costs a lot of money to bring a racehorse to Australia to compete for the coveted Melbourne Cup. Horse race owners and trainers are only going to bring the best of the best for this reason.

Many of these horses will contest some local lead up races as well, so keep an eye on their form. If an international horse is fairing well in the lead up to the Cup, then that horse just might go on to victory on Cup day.

Definitely keep a keen eye on what happens in the Geelong Cup especially.

Don’t Back a 3-Year-Old

3-year-old horses have never fared well in the Melbourne Cup. In fact, you have to go way back to 1941 when Skipton was the last 3 year old to taste victory.

The best age group to focus on is 4 and 5-year-old horses. At this age, racehorses seem to be in their prime to tackle the long distance of 3200 metres. Your next best bet is 6-year-olds, as they have also fared well throughout the race’s history.

Don’t put your money on horses that are over the age of 6, because your chances of winning will be close to zero.

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Andi Perullo de Ledesma

I am Andi Perullo de Ledesma, a Chinese Medicine Doctor and Travel Photojournalist in Charlotte, NC. I am also wife to Lucas and mother to Joaquín. Follow us as we explore life and the world one beautiful adventure at a time.

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